Cochise County Area information and sales comps.
the property is just south of Kasas Settlement which is just south of Willcox. It is also close to
Highway 191which is planned to become a Freeway from Mexico. Just one mike west of the
property there is a 881 acre parcel for sale for $2,500,000.00 but this is deseret land and has
never been farmed like the 563 acres
DEMOGRAPHICS
Tucsonıs Population & Growth
Tucsonıs population has nearly doubled in past 15 years to 1,000,000. The surrounding area is
expected to reach 1,500,000 by 2014. Since the government owns most of the land, 83% of
Arizona, the new Tucsonans will have to live in the surrounding area. Right now all the major
builders are going down the narrow corridors left for development. 1st was the northwest area of
Tucson, next was Sahuarita on the far south side of Tucson, today it is and will remain the far
southeast of Tucson. With Vail building out already and almost done, Benson is starting as
mentioned below and Willcox next . Literally there isnıt any room left for master planned
communities unless you go to Benson or Willcox, each 30 and 55 miles east of Tucson
respectively. However just as before vast tracks of land are owned by the State or Federal
Government surrounding these areas leaving little room to grow.
Benson
No large tracks of land remain in the Benson, however over 18,000 master-planned homes are
already approved by planners in Benson, land values have sky rocketed to over $25,000 per acre.
Benson only had 4 new homes built in 2003 and 2004 together. Already over 300 new homes
are going up as we speak with the population, currently 4,900, expected to double in a mere 5
years.
Even with the new Wal-Mart going in, approved by voters in September 2005, Benson has some
serious issues. First is water, located in the San Pedro Valley this is already a heavily contested
issue with Fort Huachuca up stream. Second is the lack of emergency facilities, mainly no
hospital. Combined with no large tracks of land left means Benson will infill while the builders
move down the road to Willcox.
Willcox
Willcox is 25 miles east of Benson. Same issues: The government owns all the land in between.
Three very positive items however make Willcox even more attractive:
1. Water: Willcox has no water limitations and is not in an AMA,
Actively Managed Area which strictly limits water usage. ** double check
In Arizona if you have water you are king!
2. Hospital and Emergency Services.
3. Quality land near the I-10 corridor is limited
To summarize, Tucson has grown about as much as it can with only infill lots left. Vail is
reaching itıs boundaries as government land is surrounding the small private land areaıs.
Between Vail and Benson, large tracks of government land provide no room for builders to
develop. Benson already has reached its limit since there are only a few smaller parcels under
500 acres in size left. Again with government land in between Benson and Willcox, there is no
place for builders to go. Finally in Willcox, large ranches are being developed with the blessing
of the City Counsel.
Valuing Large Pieces of Land
Willcox, Arizona
The question of how to understand the value of large pieces of land in the Tucson-Benson-
Willcox area is answered by the large builders. The builders have land banks for each phase of
development. They can not be caught without new land to build on. Therefore they have several
loosely knit time frames and phases.
Timeframe Plan
0-2 years Build now for pre-sold homes ı permits in place
2-5 years Buy land in surrounding area, start permits process,
expect 1-2 year horizon
Builders love master-planned communities at this stage
Builders also build out commercial infra-structure(self contained)
5-10 years Must have land which is banked for long term
Price is right, the builders know they want this piece to develop
Please review the accompanying Map of the Southern Arizona(above) area you will notice that
there is very little available land for private development. Builders are building in outlying
areaıs already.
SouthEast Side of Tucson - Vail is scheduled to receive a new Mall from
developer of Mall of America. They broke
ground in September 2005. See Accompanying
Article.
Benson, 30 miles east of Tucson - Only 4 new homes in two years went up in
ı03 & ı04, 2005 has 300 under construction
already with over 18,000 new master-planned
communities already approved. See Accompanying
Article.
Willcox, 25 miles east of Benson - Starting to catch the eye of builders,
Within a couple of years builders will enter
new areaıs to develop where housing costs
are more reasonable.
This is just showing the continued growth to the next corridor of cheaper land. Land prices in
Tucson can be extremely high from $500,000 to $1,000,000+ per acre. Bensonıs land prices
have already increased to approximately $20,000 per acre for large parcels.
Willcox is now starting to see the prices in the range of $3,500 to $8,000 per acre in large
parcels. This provides solid up-side potential with very little down-side risk. We are valuing our
land at $5,000 per acre. The value is conservative which is born out by the comps in the area.
This piece of land is located alongside I-10 corridor in Willcox and next to the airport with
access just minutes from the I-10 freeway. The city council members see Willcox as Arizonaıa
next destination for seniors.
Comparative Market Analysis
Cochise County – Area 702 MLS System.
(1) Property Type: Land Status: Active
Subject
Property
# ML# Status Address Lot Number List Price Approx Acres LP/ AC Approx SqFt LP/ SF
1 2290201 act Lot 47 E S. Catclaw RD Sunsites 47 $25,000 5 $5,000 217,800 $0.11
2 2301847 act Lot 46 E S. Shepherd Hills RD Sunsites 46 $25,000 5 $5,000 217,800 $0.11
3 2301873 act Lot 45 S Shepherd Hills RD Sunsites 45 $25,000 5 $5,000 217,800 $0.11
4 2392879 act 0 E Miller Way WY Elfrida 3 & 4 $459,000 100 $4,590 4,356,000 $0.11
5 2245843 act 697092 E HORSE RANCH RD Benson 070 $729,750 110.94 $6,578 4,832,546 $0.15
6 2373246 act 0000 S Bell Ranch RD Wilcox 0 $985,000 250 $3,940 10,890,000 $0.09
7 2373317 act 5388 E Ricks RD Wilcox 0 $1,195,000 160 $7,469 6,969,600 $0.17
8 2345433 act 2702 E Sandy WY Wilcox 3456 $1,504,000 319.14 $4,713 13,901,738 $0.11
9 2401722 act 0000 N Hwy 191 RD Elfrida n/a $1,666,940 303.08 $5,500 13,202,164 $0.13
10 2401726 act 4236 W Sheep TR Elfrida None $5,367,835 975.97 $5,500 42,513,253 $0.13
11 2398379 act 0000 S HIGHWAY 191 -- Sunsites 1 $7,460,000 1864.79 $4,000 81,230,252 $0.09
Average $1,767,502 372.63 16,231,723
Number of Properties: 11
ACTIVE LISTINGS ( Average ListPrice /Acre ) : = $ 4743.32
(2) Property Type: Land Status: Pending
Subject
Property
# ML# Status Address Lot Number List Price Approx Acres LP/ AC Approx SqFt LP/ SF
1 2388125 pend 0 SE E.Parker Ranch RD Wilcox 0 $400,000 160 $2,500 6,969,600 $0.06
Average $400,000 160.00 6,969,600
Number of Properties: 1
PENDING CLOSING( Average ListPrice /Acre ) = $ 2500.00
(3) Property Type: Land Status: Sold
Subject
Property
# ML# COE Date Address Lot
Number
List Price Approx
Acres
LP/ AC Approx
SqFt
LP/ SF Sales
Price
SP/
Acre
SP/ SF
1 2219705 8/08/2005 0 N Joe Hines Rd Wilcox 0 $34,900 10 $3,490 435,600 $0.08 $32,000 $3,200 $0.07
2 2186790 5/23/2005 0000 SO WHITE TAIL
RIDGE RD Sunsites
8 $129,900 39.32 $3,304 1,712,779 $0.08 $105,000 $2,670 $0.06
3 2198135 10/06/2005 203 S HIGHWAY 191 HY
Sunsites
1 $279,000 72 $3,875 3,136,320 $0.09 $279,000 $3,875 $0.09
4 2198130 10/06/2005 203 S HIGHWAY 191 HY
Sunsites
2 $289,000 72 $4,014 3,136,320 $0.09 $289,000 $4,014 $0.09
5 2198127 10/06/2005 203 S HIGHWAY 191 HY
Sunsites
1 $387,750 84 $4,616 3,659,040 $0.11 $387,750 $4,616 $0.11
Average $224,110 55.46 2,416,011 $218,550 237
Number of Properties: 5
SOLD ( Average SalePrice / Average Acres ) : ( 218550 / 55.46 ) = $ 3940.68
Prepared by Ninos Lazar
480-332-7180
West USA Realty
ninoslazar@cox.net
